and Loss Forecast (Chapter 6). You also want to be sure that your business can survive long enough so you can enjoy your profits. If you filled out a Cash Flow Forecast such as the one set out in Chapter 7, you should be able to demonstrate that you can survive foreseeable cash flow problems.     Write your risk analysis by first thinking of the main dangers your business faces. This shouldnt be hard, as you have probably been concerned about them for some time. Some of these may be on the list set out above; others will be unique to your business. Once you have identified the principal risks facing your business, write out a plan to counter each. But dont bog yourself down worrying about all sorts of unlikely disasters.     NoteA note of philosophy: This is the stage when remorse or jitters may set in. You may be thinking, "Am I really doing this? Think of all the things that could go wrong. I could lose everything!" Your purpose in writing a risk discussion is to force yourself to face your fears and concerns, not to scare yourself out of going into business. If your rational, intellectual analysis tells you that the risk factors are manageable, proceed as hard and fast as you can. You dont have time for useless and unnecessary worry. On the other hand, if you really do get overwhelmed worrying about potential disasters, pay attention to your anxieties. They may be telling you that you dont have either the personality or knowledge of your business to handle the risks youll take in a small business.     The purpose of this book is to help you understand the dimensions of the risks your business faces, but you as the potential business owner must put your money and belief on the line. Abe Lincoln said it: "Be sure youre right, then go ahead."           Antoinettes Dress Shop: Risk Analysis     Like every new business, Antoinettes faces several risks. I believe I can overcome each risk with the actions discussed below.     The primary risk we face is that our concept of an entire store selling business clothing to working businesswomen is new to this area. No one else in New City is presently doing exactly what we propose. Although we believe we have identified a market niche that the competition has failed to adequately exploit, our assumption remains to be proven here in New City. On the positive side, the population base of our target customers is more than adequate to support a store of our size and we have based our volume and profit projections on average figures for the industry. In addition, the type of store we propose has been very successful elsewhere. Nevertheless, we must demonstrate that this type store will work here. It must take sufficient business away from stores with a broader line of merchandise to make a profit.     A secondary risk is that we are thinly capitalized. If our sales volume fails to meet projections in the first year, our small working capital reserve may be inadequate to meet our cash flow needs. On the positive side, however, we believe our sales projections are conservative and that we will have little trouble meeting our sales revenue goals. In addition, by starting with relatively modest capital, we will have no large loan payments. Also, we have had several potential investors express an interest in the business. If our working capital reserves are exhausted, but the business demonstrates potential, we should be able to attract investors. (But remember we discovered that, on the basis of the Cash Flow Forecast, Antoinettes business has a fatal flaw (Chapter 7, Section E1) and her entire plan will need reworking from the beginning.)     Finally, there is a slight risk that the population of younger working women in New City will decline.